Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 245.011627 298.922824 365.943664 456.894491 579.510078 7.427410e+02 9.830048e+02
2025-07-20 190.938833 255.922696 347.854581 492.920812 727.369881 1.114377e+03 1.859674e+03
2025-07-27 159.062110 227.302869 333.000908 519.580747 867.967715 1.560965e+03 3.294474e+03
2025-08-03 136.508434 204.602443 317.603378 535.677618 995.432706 2.078222e+03 5.609013e+03
2025-08-10 118.731446 184.644529 300.125978 539.787521 1100.264833 2.640468e+03 9.228604e+03
2025-08-17 103.432010 165.452435 278.782192 528.011225 1163.215090 3.162831e+03 1.434261e+04
2025-08-24 91.135936 149.203085 259.085786 512.949205 1210.832545 3.703303e+03 2.212106e+04
2025-08-31 81.147191 135.474943 241.390711 496.802516 1248.156743 4.270200e+03 3.428824e+04
2025-09-07 78.467360 134.943058 250.190082 547.430283 1523.764520 6.352839e+03 9.545851e+04
2025-09-14 72.703430 127.479955 242.689061 553.690052 1657.791392 8.047908e+03 2.228754e+05
2025-09-21 68.672350 122.884584 240.610506 574.433300 1867.012405 1.089805e+04 8.089718e+05
2025-09-28 63.637915 115.532513 230.836394 569.742461 1970.621416 1.336514e+04 3.167202e+06
2025-10-05 62.272234 115.957400 240.184502 629.859089 2451.560702 2.274749e+04 3.484006e+10
2025-10-12 60.427690 115.094146 246.310519 683.462401 2987.247169 3.941290e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 58.090873 112.785413 248.258775 724.121218 3524.554268 6.776546e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 55.360015 109.193943 246.062255 748.901206 4011.881902 1.136440e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 52.300589 104.444557 239.778555 755.247694 4384.127217 1.803881e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 48.833731 98.331356 228.589495 737.059455 4526.804997 2.503714e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 45.581612 92.413651 217.084709 713.878141 4602.239810 3.373108e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 42.611683 86.903266 205.990619 689.129271 4638.442096 4.479549e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 42.437553 88.304341 215.910454 767.078750 6042.895845 2.153086e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 40.644891 85.412179 212.081979 776.787032 6654.147300 6.590291e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 39.441873 83.911910 212.443710 809.065670 7748.866081 7.293791e+07 NaN